DTN Early Word Livestock Comments 02/21 06:19
Livestock Futures Should Remain Supported
Nearby cattle saw pressure Tuesday, closing slightly lower with later
contracts holding the line. Traders are waiting for cash and looking ahead to
the upcoming Cattle on Feed report. Hogs broke above resistance but could not
hold the strong gains with only a moderate close.
DTN Contributing Analyst
Cattle: Steady Futures: Mixed Live Equiv: $219.30 +0.19*
Hogs: Higher Futures: Higher Lean Equiv: $98.55 -$1.34**
*Based on formula estimating live cattle equivalent of gross packer revenue.
(The Live Cattle Equiv. Index has been updated to depict recent changes in live
cattle weights and grading percentages.)
** based on formula estimating lean hog equivalent of gross packer revenue.
Traders are waiting to see an indication of what cash might do this week. At
the same time, they are anticipating the upcoming Cattle on Feed report. The
estimates for the report are for cattle on feed on Feb. 1 to be 100.1% with the
trade estimates ranging from 99.4% to 101.1%. Placements will be the wild card
again with the average estimated at 88.2% with the range of guesses from 81.6%
to 94.9%. If the estimated placement number is correct, it would be the lowest
placement number for January since 2007. Marketings in January are estimated at
100.0% with a range of 98.6% to 100.3%. Cash cattle have not traded nor have
bids or offers been posted. Boxed beef was higher Tuesday with choice up $0.28
and select up $0.42. Feeder cattle futures were much stronger, pushing to new
highs as there is optimism from buyers over continued strong cattle prices due
to tighter numbers.
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The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of futures results.